Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Ron Paul 1, Statism 0
In the investment world, it is a well-known axiom that the trend is your friend (until it reverses). This phrase has been around for hundreds of years and contains a lot of horse sense. Only an academic could truly posit that anything controlled by human behavior is a so-called "random walk." The tendency of humans to herd is well documented and proven. To those in the know about investing, the concept of trend uniformity is well known and to bet against a well-established trend is folly. Yet all trends go too far and then reverse. The trick is to know when they have reversed. I would submit that in the 20th and 21st centuries Statism has been a prevailing trend versus the Individual. Economies of scale and the need for large teams to accomplish big projects drove us in that direction in spite of our agrarian roots. But I sense a change of trend. I believe that the support for Dr. Ron Paul is a function of the fact that he is sitting on top of an enormous new trend: Individuals versus Big Organizations or Individuals versus the State. I am long Individuals and short the State.